Holding the Line: Voters Protect Legal Cannabis in the 2026 Midterms as the Next Fight Moves to Statehouses

The only statewide cannabis measures on the ballot instead sought to roll back or restrict existing cannabis policy, and voters rejected both by wide margins. At the same time, shifts in control of several statehouses and US Congress may open new legislative paths to reform. Taken together, the results suggest that established adult-use markets may prove politically durable, that future legalization may be more likely to come through legislatures than ballot initiatives, and that the federal legal landscape remains largely unchanged for now. All results discussed below are unofficial pending certification.

Ballot Measures

Massachusetts (Question 8): Failed. The measure would have repealed licensed adult-use production and sales. Approximately 75.7% of voters rejected it, well above the 54% that approved legalization in 2016. It was the first time voters anywhere were asked to dismantle an operating adult-use market, and the Marijuana Policy Project called Massachusetts “the first state in the nation to successfully beat back an organized ballot effort to undo voter-approved adult-use cannabis legalization.” Repeal backers, including Smart Approaches to Marijuana, argued that the campaign nonetheless forced a debate over high-potency tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) products.

Idaho (HJR 4): Failed. This constitutional amendment would have given the legislature sole authority to legalize marijuana and other psychoactive substances, preventing citizen initiatives on the subject, including for medical use. Approximately 66.2% of voters rejected it, according to the Associated Press (AP). The result is notable in a state where cannabis remains entirely illegal, and advocates, who came close to qualifying a medical cannabis initiative this year, have signaled interest in a stronger effort next cycle.

Houston (Proposition A): Passed. With more than 70% support in early returns, this city charter amendment makes misdemeanor marijuana possession the police department’s lowest enforcement priority and bars no-knock warrants. Combined with the Governor and state House results in Texas, going Democratic for the first time in more than 30 years, the likelihood of this policy being overturned statewide (as we have seen in the past with local ordinances), is very low. The measure does not legalize cannabis or create a licensed market.

Legislative and Electoral Outcomes

Pennsylvania. Democrats expanded their majority the state House and, per AP projections, won the Senate (26–24) for the first time since 1993. In 2025, a legalization bill passed the House in, but stalled in the Senate; Gov. Josh Shapiro, a legalization supporter, also easily won reelection. With adult-use sales already permitted in neighboring New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Ohio, Pennsylvania may now have a credible path to becoming one of the largest new adult-use markets.

Wisconsin. Democrats flipped both chambers and the governorship. Governor-elect David Crowley has said the state must move toward full legalization. With Wisconsin bordered by adult-use states such as Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota, the state could potentially take up adult use without ever having built a meaningful medical program.

Texas. Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who continued to push a ban on hemp-derived THC after Gov. Greg Abbott vetoed one in June 2025, lost to Democrat Vikki Goodwin, who favors regulation. Because the Lieutenant Governor runs the Texas Senate, the hemp debate could shift from prohibition toward regulation.

New Hampshire. While Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who opposes legalization, barely won re-election, which could signal that the state may remain the only one in New England without adult-use sales, Democrats secured a super majority in the State House and expanded their majority in the State Senate (and, theoretically, could potentially override any veto from Gov. Ayotte).

Congress. Democrats retook both chambers, including Senate seats won by reform supporters James Talarico (Texas) and Troy Jackson (Maine), who defeated Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. Susan Collins, respectively. A new majority does not by itself change federal law, though it could influence which cannabis bills get hearings in the 120th Congress.

Notable Trends

Taken together, the results suggest voters played defense rather than expanding access, protecting both a mature adult-use market in Massachusetts and the right to decide the issue in prohibitionist Idaho. They also appear to distinguish cannabis from broader crime policy: across 11 states, voters generally approved tougher criminal penalties and bail restrictions, such as Colorado’s Proposition 132 on fentanyl offenses, even as they rejected marijuana rollbacks. Adult-use expansion also appears to be running chiefly through legislatures, and hemp-derived THC seems to be emerging as a distinct political issue.

Potential Considerations for Businesses

• Federal law remains a central consideration. Adult-use cannabis remains in Schedule I, and medical operators must register with the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) following the April rescheduling. The Sixth Circuit’s Hello Farms decision indicates that federal courts may decline to enforce contracts that depend on federally prohibited conduct, notwithstanding state licensure, and that later rescheduling may not cure contracts that were illegal when made.
• Massachusetts operators may face reduced repeal risk. Industry observers anticipate that the 2027 debate more broadly could turn to taxes, licensing, potency, and hemp.
• Prospective entrants may wish to follow 2027 legislative sessions in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The terms of any adult-use program would be set by legislation. Early consideration of real estate, zoning, and capital needs may also be worthwhile.
• Hemp businesses in Texas may want to consider how apossible shift from prohibition toward regulation might affect their operations. Local enforcement-priority measures such as Houston’s, do not appear to authorize commercial activity.
• Transaction counsel and investors should account for federal-state conflicts. Forum-selection, choice-of-law, severability, and federal-compliance provisions take on increasing importance in cannabis transactions, and that contract enforceability becomes a more prominent focus in diligence.

Looking Ahead

The industry’s most significant near-term developments may well occur in statehouses and federal agencies, not at the ballot box. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin appear to be the leading legalization candidates for 2027, the new Congress may give cannabis bills more attention, and the DEA’s process on adult-use cannabis is likely to remain a key variable. The decisive Massachusetts result may also discourage repeal efforts elsewhere, while the Idaho result keeps a future medical cannabis initiative possible.

ArentFox Schiff’s Cannabis group will continue to track developments. For further information, contact one of the authors or the AFS attorney with whom you normally work.