English Quoted Discussing Congressional Efforts to Curb Tariffs

Phil said that even if Democrats win congressional majorities, they are unlikely to secure the two-thirds support needed to override a presidential veto on controversial trade legislation. He also discussed how partisan dynamics and the administration’s approach to trade policy could shape prospects for reform. 

Phil said, “The Republican minority in the House will not be shrunken enough for them to get a two-thirds vote on something controversial and technical like trade.” 

On the Administration’s approach to trade, Phil explained, “Here’s the challenge: In the trade arena, unlike others, I think the president has very strong views and a sense of complete authority in setting policies on short notice, and also with essentially a lack of traditional process. And as a result, I’m not sure that I see many places where the administration would be willing to deal on that.” 

Phil said he is “extremely doubtful” that Democrats with 53 Senate seats could find seven Republicans to support legislation reining in executive tariff actions, although he said ending the trade war with Canada could have a chance of reaching two-thirds support in both chambers. 

Phil also said the political environment after the election could determine whether support for the Administration’s trade policies weakens or partisan divisions deepen. He added, “After the shock of this election, what is done with the Democratic majority is going to have a big impact on the extent to which the country is once more polarized.”

He said if congressional investigations “become heated and bloody,” as he expects, and include impeachments of Cabinet officials, that could make it less likely Republicans would buck the president on trade. Phil said, “I can see in my own mind where a case for support for Trump trade policies could crumble, or I could see a case for essentially hardening into polarization.”

Phil emphasized that leaders who want to write trade law reform will have to educate new members and others who have not specialized in that policy area. He noted that the Section 232 reform bills that were introduced in the Senate in the first Trump term were led by Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., who both have left Congress. Phil called them “authentic trade policy thinkers,” and said they and others “have in general been replaced by people that don’t have the same depth of understanding.”

Phil also praised lawmakers he expects to play prominent roles in trade policy discussions, saying, “I think Mr. Neal is one of the smartest policy people on the Hill, and I believe he will use his institutional memory to make a major contribution on trade policy. I think he will be an impediment to the Democrats making mistakes that could potentially impact parts of their coalition.” 

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