ArentFox Schiff 2026 Election Analysis

As of this writing, there are 237 House Democratic candidates declared the winners by the Associated Press and 147 Republicans, with more than 50 races still not called. Some are speculating that the Democrats might win as many as 240 to 250 seats, for a large enough margin that anticipated Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) could afford to lose some members of his caucus on key votes but still get priority bills approved. Meanwhile, as of this writing, the Senate has a 54-44 split, with Alaska and Mississippi not yet declared. Anticipated Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will have some flexibility on key votes also, compared to a 51-49 margin, but Senate rules still make 60 the more relevant number.

As the red, white, and blue decorations are boxed and saved for Election Night 2028, it is important for all to realize that a change in majority status in the Congress does not mean that all Democratic initiatives will be fully realized. Democrats have successfully pulled off a midterm election strategy that will be the subject of countless dissertations and podcasts, winning Senate seats in Kansas (first Democrat in 94 years) and Maine (deposing the moderate Appropriations Committee Chair) and House seats in every pocket of the country (including some in districts specially engineered to be Republican wins during an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting push).

However, there is still a Republican President who will not be eager to participate in the undoing of some of his legislative achievements, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The President’s ability and desire to veto or threaten to veto Democratic-led initiatives will likely be a regular feature of policymaking the next two years, notwithstanding the President’s comment on election night that he can find ways to work with the Democrats. And, while the Senate may have a margin as large as 55-45, the prospect of a filibuster means that for most types of legislation, including annual appropriations bills, 60 votes are required and bipartisan support is a mathematical necessity. Senate Republican Leader John Thune (R-SD) has already signaled that he and his caucus will remain vigilant in the face of anticipated Democratic efforts to increase spending, eliminate tax cuts, and offer broader health care coverage.

Looming over these midterm elections is the shadow of a now lame-duck President who has been used to getting most of what he desires from a Congressional Republican majority. It will be harder for the Administration to get its legislative agenda items through Congress, and it will need to (1) spend more energy protecting the wins it obtained and (2) identify ways to accomplish some objectives through administrative action. We note, however, that the new Democratic majority will have tools to try to stop agency actions that Congressional Democrats find abhorrent, and that the checks and balances provided by the Judicial Branch shall continue to play an important role in weeding out some of the most controversial Administration initiatives.

Our Government Relations group has attempted to provide a quick assessment of how the federal elections will impact key policy areas of greatest interest to ArentFox Schiff clients and friends. We encourage you to reach out to your ArentFox Schiff points of contact to discuss these issues further. 

Our Analysis

• Budget & Appropriations

• Health Care & Life Sciences

• Technology, Privacy & Artificial Intelligence

• International Trade

• Tax

• Congressional Investigations

• Energy & Cleantech

• ​Anti-Poverty & Entitlements

• District of Columbia

• Higher Education

• Financial Services

• Housing Policy

• Transportation & Mobility

• National Security & Foreign Policy

Our Washington Insiders React

“Democracy requires both political parties to make things work. My hope and expectation is that the President, having suffered such a major loss in the election, will become a partner to Congress in finding solutions to those things that have always made America a leader in the things that matter most across the world!”

— Byron Dorgan, Government Relations Practice Co-Chair

“The new Congress will still suffer from polarization and gridlock, with the Executive and Legislative Branches at odds in the next two years. Moving beyond the recent melee, both parties have an opportunity for a reset with Democrats having the power of legislative initiative.”

— Philip S. English, Government Relations Practice Co-Chair

“This election marks a meaningful transition for the District, with a new Mayor and several new members of the Council taking office for the first time in many years. For residents, businesses, and organizations that work with the District government, the months ahead will be a time to engage early, understand the incoming leadership’s priorities, and help shape how those priorities become policy.”

— David P. Grosso, Government Relations Partner