ArentFox Schiff 2022 Election Analysis

Our Insiders Preview What Happens Next
Election Analysis 2022
Americans woke up on Wednesday, November 9, immediately realizing something was different. On their televisions and other devices, they only saw commercials for products, vacation spots, and reality shows. Could it be? The 2022 midterm Congressional campaigns had ended and Flo from Progressive had regained her footing as the commercial we see every 10 minutes.

After a long, tough slog for candidates and their supporters, ballots were tabulated, gracious concessions were given, and the shape of the 118th Congress began to come into focus. Confounding many pundits and other observers, the “Red Wave” had not occurred, leaving a massive House Republican majority and a smaller Senate Republican majority in its wake. Instead, it now appears that if the House of Representatives has a Republican majority, it will be a small margin that complicates their ability to govern. And, the Senate could easily remain at 50-50, giving the Democrats a constructive majority thanks to the Constitutional prerogative of the Vice President to break a tie. Or, the Senate could end as a small Republican majority or a full-fledged Democratic majority.

Due to the 24-hour-a-day saturation of political news arising out of Tuesday’s elections, your ArentFox Schiff Government Relations Practice Group has not attempted in this report to provide an up-to-the-minute recitation of all the remaining House and Senate results. Instead, we offer our traditional biennial substantive analysis, across more than a dozen issue areas, of what the likely impact will be on policymaking at the federal level.

Within this analysis, you will see insightful overviews from our three former Members of Congress and in-depth explanations of how the electoral results will impact you and your organization.

From predictions about how Congress and the White House will negotiate the next increase to the debt ceiling to itemizing likely health care policy priorities to providing context for likely tax policy initiatives and commenting on the ways a partisan divide on climate change and clean energy will play out, this report should give you a first look at how the 118th Congress and the Biden Administration will govern our nation for the next two years.

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Our Analysis

  • Budget & Appropriations
  • Agriculture
  • Anti-Poverty & Entitlements
  • Congressional Investigations
  • Energy & Cleantech
  • Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG)
  • Health Care & Life Sciences
  • Higher Education
  • International Trade & Investment
  • National Security
  • Tax
  • Transportation & Mobility

Our Washington Insiders React

“I expect Congress will continue to be a partisan battleground on a wide range of issues including energy, border security, crime, inflation, the debt ceiling, and much more.”
Byron Dorgan
Government Relations Practice Co-Chair

“The new Congress needs to find common ground where it can. Many of the biggest issues may be impossible to resolve, but officials should be able to make progress where dogmas don't interfere.”
Philip S. English
Government Relations Practice Co-Chair

“The big question will be whether the GOP will want to work with the Administration to find common ground on important issues or simply conduct oversight and investigations in an effort to deny Joe Biden any more perceived victories going forward to 2024.”
Doug Jones


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